The Fishback Problem

[I'm going to keep this short. I just want to get something out there before the hearings tomorrow]

In the last post, I mentioned one of the risks of James Fishback vote percent 1% Y or 3% Y:

Will he be running?? There is some talk he might not be eligible to run. But given how much energy he is putting into this, I can only assume he is able to. I sure hope so...

I should have paid more attention to this. Things have developed a bit. His main rival for second place, Jay Collins, officially sued him, saying he is ineligible to run in the race, because he has not lived in Florida for 7 consecutive years.

The Case

The Jay Collins for Governor campaign on Monday filed a legal challenge to James Fishback’s eligibility as a candidate for Florida governor, asking a Leon County court to declare that Fishback does not meet the Florida Constitution’s seven-year residency requirement.

According to the filing, between 2020 and 2026 Fishback registered to vote and voted in Washington, D.C., purchased property there, signed mortgage documents declaring it his principal residence, and received a D.C. Homestead Deduction tied to his domicile and principal residence in the District.

You can see some documents here: https://www.scribd.com/document/1056431100/Motion-for-expedited-hearing-filed-by-Jay-Collins

All parties met recently to schedule hearings, and the hearings will be July 21st and 22nd.

My Take

I think Fishback is lying.

His exact response from a question during a defensive press conference in front of his childhood home:

Q: Were you a registered voter in 2020 in DC, yes or no?
A: No.

But his entire family is registered to vote at 4009 Davis. And 4009 Davis is the address he used on his borrower address, personally tied to him.

Earlier in the press conference, he says there is a different James Fishback with a "No Party Affiliation" in DC, and he has been affiliated Republican. But I see a NPA James Fishback with his family at an address that he claimed to be his own on mortgage documents.

My take is that he had ambitions of being closer to Trump and being a national player, moved to DC before the 2020 election, Biden won or circumstances changed, and then he made it back to Florida to run for office.

Will he be disqualified from running? I think so, but I'm not confident enough – my understanding is that courts try to side on allowing people to run for office.

Write-ins?

A thought crossed my mind, that Fishback 1% would be possible because of a write-in campaign. But the Kalshi contract specifies that the votes need to be in the "certified results" and if he didn't qualify, votes for him would not be certified.

Implications

The Fishback vote percent market is pricing this in. 1% Y used to be around 95%, now it is hovering around 50-65% Y. This seems to be the market's pricing of if he will be disqualified.

Other Notes

I think this is a legitimate issue with his candidacy, but there is now a pattern of Republican backlash against Fishback, presumably because he is growing in popularity and threatening to be a leading voice of the post-MAGA right.

"Ted Cruz-aligned group blasts Florida's Fishback in ad targeting antisemitism" - "The Front Line" spent $400k in ad buys against him.