Republicans after Trump: The Fishback Question (Florida Governor Republican Primary)

Trump's Bidenification continues, and all signs point to the Don becoming physically weaker and less popular.

As the president tires out and disapproval increases among the younger right-wing activist base, what's the future? It's looking a like the situation the dems were in after 2024.

The average voter is tired of glazing Israel, pissed at the billionaires, sick of data centers, and slowly tiring of Trump and the Big-R or Big-D Republicans and Democrats.

Kalshi has odds for the Dems to control the house in 2026 at 78%, and the "Blue Tsunami" market of controlling 235 seats of the House and 51 senate seats hit 50% today. So the future of the right feels uncertain, and it's ripe for a refresh.

Given the decrease in Trump's popularity across the board, I have a hard time believing that the Trump orbit is likable or has a chance at helping the republicans in 2026 and 2028 - people like Kash Patel, Hegseith, Rubio, Vance, I don't see them escaping the MAGA orbit safely and competing for the independents and swing voters.

So what's next? Who can inject some vitality into the right?

I'll spend this article talking about James Fishback, his place in the future of the right, and how this all relates to my Kalshi bets.

This is my first time seriously researching a republican primary, so please leave comments if you have feedback.

James Fishback

James Fishback is running in the Republican Primary for Florida Governor, and currently second place beyond Byron Donalds.

He worked in finance unsuccessfully, got heated and told a black guy he "should be lynched" for accusing him of sexual assault, lied about advising DOGE, and presumably dated and maybe groomed an underage girl.

Even with this, I'm going out on a huge limb here and saying that Fishback is to to the 2026 right as Bernie Sanders was to the 2016 left.

That means that he's probably not going to win the primary, but he's going to be the reason a lot of young republicans get into politics, and he will only grow in popularity going forward.

How Fishback Counters the New Left

Here's how I see James Fishback, or ideology/aesthetics like his, taking parts of the left voterbase:

Currently the new left is first-place on materialist issues like affordability, healthcare, labor, and similarly for the current "cultural" issues like anti-Israel, anti-data centers, and Epstein files.

The character of the ascendent new left like Mamdani and Platner, or Talarico; maybe Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong, align with these views and are ahead of the ball compared to more institutional dems and republicans.

But Fishback is already creating a model to absorb the best of views, and go beyond.

He's calling Israel's actions a genocide, pushing to fully release the Epstein files, saying he doesn't care about drag queen culture war stuff, give raises to public school teachers; he's Anti-Palantir, Anti-Flock, Anti-Data-Center, and wants to subsidize house ownership. These are increasingly popular positions across both parties.

He then goes further in a more uniquely right-wing way: "H-1B Indians are taking your jobs," "Tax Onlyfans," "Incentivize stay-at-home moms", "Give students better school lunches (MAHA)," "Pro-life also means pre-healthcare after childbirth," all while hammering the affordability message.

These are all effective grounds for the right to take.

And Fishback wants the government to do more, not less. He is psudo-socialist in the ways that he wants to have the state help uplift Americans by direct programs, but does it through a lens of rewarding people who aren't on government assistance (paradoxically?) and rewarding people who are getting married and having children.

Bernie Sanders supported Trump in buying shares in Intel, and I think anything that is close to this overlap will be popular with the new right, opposed to the "less government" old right.

Overall, I think Fishback is taking unique positions that have strong overlap or foils to the post-Bernie Left.

Ready for the new left to be Cringe again

Zohran, Platner, and Talarico all have the capacity for a kind of "lib/millenial" energy slowly oozing out of off them that will start to get old. It is only a matter of years until there is a "Pokemon Go to the Polls" incident. Zohran uses analogies to Mario Kart, Graham Platner was posting cringe on reddit, and Talarico looks low-T; a little too similar to Pete Buttigieg.

I don't think 'cringe reckoning' is here yet, and don't even think the new left is cringe yet. But I see this eventually becoming a foil which a masculine new sincerity on the right can counter. Like how gen-z is reportedly increasingly turning towards Catholicism, Orthodoxy, and Islam in a comparison to the Talarico Woke Christian, the Evangelical Right, or the 'In This House We Believe Science Is Real' Atheism.

As the less-urban anti-israel post-PC younger right grows up, this messaging sounds more and more attractive. FIshback is speaking a fun language: "goyslop," "doomscroll," "Matan is a worldclass rage baiter," and is ready to go more 'anti-PC' than the left can handle.

A post-Trump right will need to find their place in this.

Grand Theft Auto Americana

Fishback is positioning himself aesthetically in a kind of "Grand Theft Auto Americana."

He has rallies at Waffle House and Chipotle and Gas Stations. This aligns with the culture of hanging out at gas stations (2014, and 2026, or this from 2024 but in Louisiana) and a kind of semi-surburban youth culture. Young people today grow up hanging out at these places, especially ages 16-21 when you have a car can't go to bars.

Fishback mentioned he wants to have a 24-hour GTA 6 marathon in the governor's mansion when it is finally released. GTA 6 will take place in a fictional version of Florida. There is a kind of cultural synergy here.

I simply think he is on the edge of a Groypers-gone-mainstream culture in a way that will grow well on the right in the coming decades, and this can serve as a model for candidates inspired by him.

Fishback's Opponent, Byron Donalds

I won't focus too much on Byron Donalds. I think he is more likely than Fishback to win this primary, but he is not the future of the right.

Donalds isn't taking a strong stance on datacenters (but he has a pragmatic view on it), he's pro-Israel, and his donation dynamic is "big politics" where he gets lots of PAC money and has an understanding that "big donors are investors in his company", are shareholders, and "can spend time with the CEO".

His stances, support, and campaign to me feels geriatric – Cuomo to Mamdani, or McGreevey to James Solomon.

Byron Donalds is endorsed by Trump, and FL republican primary voters here are on average older than other states. So this should work for him.

James Fishback: Prediction Markets

So what does all this conjecture mean for Kalshi?

Here's my summary, and I'll go into detail on each point in the following paragraphs:

• While I'm trying to make money now, it's also an exercise in understanding the future of the right, which will help me predict future republican primaries.
• A lot can change in 100 days, momentum can build quickly, and it is worth looking at other races like Texas Senate or KY-04 to see how things might shake up.
• KXGOVFLNOMR-26: I don't think Fishback will win Governor, but leading up to the election I think he could have a better chance than 8%.
• KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS: I think Fishback will certainly get at least 5% of the vote, and very likely more than this.

The New Right and Prediction Markets

Most of my biggest bets and wins were predicting the new left wave in democratic primaries or de-facto democratic generals, particularly investing before 50c and winning money on Mamdani, Platner, Talarico, and James Solomon in Jersey City (a progressive winning against "old left" McGreevey).

My feeling is that this edge is fading as most people are starting to see the trend. But the right is still figuring out what is next for themselves and is in a position the left was in about 2 years ago, if not earlier. It's very dynamic.

So with that assumption – that my "new left edge" is waning and there is not yet a clear successful "new right" aesthetic/ideological clustering, I feel an urgency to pay attention to how the new right is constructing themselves, before other market participants figure it out.

Fishback is first politician that I feel will be semi-successful with the young 'new right,' but he is only part of something larger, a nation-wide right-wing id projected by an unhappy, populist youth and actualized by donations, political labor, word of mouth, and republican primary votes.

The young people inspired by him will get into politics and help shape and define the future of the right. They have larger social networks (now and over the rest of their lives), more of their life to diffuse their views.

This is compared to the older Byron rally attendees which presumably do not have as much social influence over the rest of their lifespans, but are overrepresented in this FL primary.

So even if Fishback doesn't win here, it's good to look at who's spending their time at his campaign events and thinking about how the demographics of the turnout might translate to other states.

The Next 100 Days

A lot can happen before the primary, and here's what I'm looking for as I consider my position:

• Will he be running?? There is some talk he might not be eligible to run. But given how much energy he is putting into this, I can only assume he is able to. I sure hope so...
• Texas Republican Senate nominee? Donalds feels a little like Paxton, but the matchup is inverse. So if there is enthusiasm around Paxton (not just a tight win) presumably because of his MAGAness, and in spite of his adultery (similar to Donalds), this is a signal.
• Political labor: Can Fishback turn his supporters into volunteers? I'm not seeing this happen yet. There are people holding signs by the side of the road, but not the left-style phone bank + canvassing.
• Fundraising: Financial support is lacking compared to Donalds and his donors. Can Fishback get small donations? It doesn't look like he's doing well so far.
• Trump popularity: If trump approval craters among republican primary voters, especially among the 40+ crowd, Fishback has a better chance. The upcoming KY-04 race could be a good signal here, if Massie wins.
• The old: How do the 50+ get their information about who to vote for? And how does this change when a lot of them are transplants and snow birds from the north?
• Governor vs Mayor or Senate: Governor is a much bigger universe than Mayor, and to some extent senate races.
• Hispanics: Florida has a larger hispanic republican base compared to other states, and what are they considering when deciding candidates and deciding if they are going to vote in a primary? I think younger politically-involved hispanics can be more "Nick Fuentes" aligned but am more interested in how less politically active primary voters will think.

Florida Republican Governor nominee (KXGOVFLNOMR-26)

James Fishback is not going to win, but I'm not betting N.

I think the race will get closer, but a governor's race in a state with such an older population is really hard to swing towards someone new that is catering to a younger crowd. And Florida's republican GOTV apparatus is mature and works in Byron's favor.

Fishback could do much more intensive mobilization of volunteers for phone banking or canvassing to get his demographics out to vote, but I am not seeing signs he's doing this successfully right now.

Besides expanding the base, some primary voters could care more about cultural issues. If an anti-datacenter, anti-rich-donor, anti-israel populist bent that already happened to the left spreads to the right enough, this could meaningfully move things. There would also need to be enough people that don't care about Byron's Trump endorsement. Most of this is wishful thinking, at this point, and not a good case for Fishback Y.

I made some Fishback Y around 8c, I think it may go up given good debate performance, media attention, some positive polls, and enough Kalshi YOLOs; and although I think this will go to Byron I won't be taking any N at these levels.

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent (KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS)

The vote percentage market is where the real juice is at. Thanks for reading to the end, since this is my only concrete tip in this article.

I'm assuming Fishback will be on the ballot, first of all. So that gives me a full confidence in 1%, which is at 85c right now. 5% is at 71c.

The strikes I'm targeting are at >=20% and >=30%, which are currently at 34c and 19c respectively.

I'm very confident that if he is on the ballot and performs well during debates and gets enough media attention, he will certainly hit 20%, without a doubt.

In his previous republican primaries, Byron never faced someone with an ounce of cultural capital who was ahead of the curve in the right-wing cultural factors that voters are beginning to care more about.

The best Byron did in a primary was 83.7% against Jim Huff in a 2022 congressional district primary where he got 76,192 votes. And Jim Huff was a nobody, and doesn't have enough notoriety to warrant a wikipedia page like Fishback.

And going further, I believe Fishback will go 20%+ because of all the cultural and momentum factors in the rest of the article above, especially anti-Israel or anti-'career politician' factors and raw youth vitality/virality and new ideological-aesthetic trends. The right wants something new.

Also, looking at the 2018 governor primary, DeSantis got only 58% of the primary vote even with a solid Trump endorsement, when Trump was at a high point of his approval.

There is an opportunity cost since the primary is August 18th, which is many months away, but I like certain money more than fast money.

Final Words: Fuentes and Fishback

When looking at races and candidates I try to put aside myself and my ego. There are very few elections where I have a chance of changing the results by even one vote, and getting lost in my opinions doesn't help me make better predictions.

But let me do some moral grandstanding for a moment.

The growth of the "Goyper" subtype of the right wing makes me a bit worried for the future of America. The way that Fishback and Fuentes talk about race and demographics feels like it is from anger.

From Fuentes's May 1 2026 show:

We're already a non-white country. Get a grip. Get real, bro. This is already — We already live in Mogadishu. We already live in Islamabad. Have you been outside? LA, Chicago, New York. We live in ni**er hell. And that's just what — and you know, it's what it is. I know it's not exactly politically correct to say that. And listen, I know that's not exactly politically correct. Sorry, snowflake. What do you need a safe space? Did that just trigger you? It's where we live.

That's the only thing keeping me going is that we are in a war. We are in a pitched battle against the children of Esau. That's all there is. That's all there is. That's all that matters anymore. It's that the Christians are in a war with the children of Esau. It's Rome and Jerusalem. Rome and Jerusalem, that's it. That is all that matters. That is the battle. 

I understand how young men can look at the past majority white baby boomer America where a single earner mailman household could buy a house, then look ahead at uncertainty, unaffordability; the decline of an American empire and increasingly diverse population, see masses of drug addicts on the streets in LA/SF, see how Israel is genociding Palestinians, come to these conclusions, get really mad, and latch onto this messaging.

America has always been reckoning with Race and Ethnicity and Identity, White and Black and Hispanic and Indian, we're fitting these onto Census responses, and as the country's demographics mix up and there's no clear way to represent Hispanic vs White on a 23-and-me genetic test, we're all going to be reckoning with what all these words actually mean.

So the frustration makes sense to me. Underneath language like 'ni**er hell' or 'battle against the children of Esau' or 'White Christian' is dissatisfaction with current US society or Israel's control over our country.

What worries me more than the vocabulary is the framing and the anger dripping from their words, that we are "at war", there is "a battle" and the christian framing to this. And I am worried that younger people on the right will become more and more militant as a result.

When Fuentes calls cities "ni**er hell" or that "this country is being raped to death by immigrants and Jews", when Fishback calls Byron Donalds a slave ('to donors') or "DEI Republican", and says a black guy he is talking to should be lynched in an argument... it's hateful.

It might be effective political rhetoric, and it might not have the same negative impact for gen z/alpha that it would to later generations, but there is an angry darkness that sticks to them, and you can see it in their eyes.

Fishback and Fuentes identify as Catholic. But how does their rhetoric reconcile with Matthew 5:44, "love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you"? Or the pope's call to welcome migrants?

They can say they are joking and move the goalposts, but all their words carry weight and form impressions and pathways and patterns in their brains and their supporter's minds. So many young people today have their airpods in and spend more hours listening to Fuentes speak than any other person in their life.

Fuentes and Fishback and others in this sphere could be using their positions of authority to advocate for kindness, love, charity, even in an America First context.

These are the contradictions that the republicans will be figuring out in the coming years, and I just hope this growing force on the right finds a politically-effective way to advocate for their views and policies from a place of kindness and mercy instead of anger.

Misc Notes, Quotes, and Research

The following is a general outline of research I did for the article, mostly from his speeches and interviews.

• Post-Culture War:
  • "I'm no fan of drag queens. but drag queens aren't the reason why you can't buy a home."
  • "Let's get back to an America that doesn't point to the Democrats and call them Marxist or Democrats pointing to Republicans and calling them fascist."
  • "I get that there are some teachers out there who wake up and indoctrinate their students. That is not the majority. That's not even close to the majority of teachers. It's a small minority of teachers and they become a political pawn in our system."
  • "Look, you can be pro ICE, you can be anti-ICE, you can be proTrump or anti-Trump. It doesn't matter."
• Self described "America First"; Anti War (Ukraine and Iran)
• Public education
  • "We're also going to back up a little bit too and make sure that we continue to fight for public education. [...] For the public school teachers who wake up early, who stay late, who dig into their own pockets to cover school supplies or lunch money, they deserve a raise because they have earned it."
• Israel is committing genocide:
  • "It is wrong and it is evil to look a family in the eye and say, 'There isn't money for you, but there's $5 billion to give to Israel to wage a genocide.' And it's a genocide."
  • "Florida law says that you're only allowed to lend money to one country and no other country. $385 million. Can you guess what country that is? Israel."
• Christianity
  • "I condemn the hatred of the most persecuted group on earth, and that is Christians."
• Health care
  • The richest country in the world will look a pregnant mom in Orlando in the eye and say, "We don't have money to cover the cost of child birth or maternity leave." But we have money to send $300 billion to Ukraine to lose a war.
• Jobs
  • "As governor, I will end the H-1B scam so you guys can get jobs."
• Economy
  • Thomas Soul is his favorite economist
• Epstein
  • "Release [the files] immediately. All 6 million Epstein files for the public to see and bring these people to justice."
• Marriage and Children
  • "If you don't have a home, can't get married. If you can't get married, you can't have kids. If you can't have kids, what is the point?"
  • "Open adultary in Florida is a crime in Florida" [source] (about Byron Donald's relationship)
• Housing
  • "That home now is going to set you back half a million. And the people you're bidding against aren't people at all. They're private equity firms, hedge funds run by billionaires in New York City and Shanghai and Companies like Blackstone and Black Rockck. Doesn't matter whether you're a Republican or a Democrat. We should all agree that single family homes in Florida are for Floridaians, not for private equity firms."
  • "[...] as governor, I'll work with the legislature to ban Blackstoneone and Black Rock and foreign nationals. And yes, the guy who wants to open his 67th Airbnb next door. Those homes are for our families. They're for first responders. They're for police officers. They're for teachers. They're for small business owners. there for whomever in Florida has contributed to this community to make it what it is."
  • "I'm for one thing and one thing only, and that is complete and total property tax elimination"
• Anti digital ID - tied to social credit score, considered mass surveillance and encroaching on privacy
• Health
  • "If the mainstream media spent as much time as they do tone policing and word policing as actually delivering on the Make America Healthy Again initiative, on actually writing about the poison that's in our food and in our water and yes, in our air. We have a safer country. Look, it is not a political position to look out for the environment and want clean air and water. That's not a political position. It is a biblical obligation. And as a Christian, I will fulfill that for you."
• Safety:
  • "this young black man asks me and as serious as can be, As governor, would I visit the hood?" His words, "Would I visit the hood?" And I smirked and I laughed at that. But I also said for a moment, if the governor of Florida is not willing to walk any city block, any neighborhood in Florida, if there is any part of our state where I, as governor, would not be willing to walk myself day or night, that is a problem. Whether you're rich or you're poor or you're black or you you're white, you deserve to live in safety. And law enforcement will always have my full support to do that. [applause]"
• Abortion
  • "Jeremiah 1:5 makes clear that before I formed you, I knew you. Before you were born, I set you apart. Life begins at conception. [...] That means opening up crisis pregnancy resource centers for free, regardless of insurance status or income that offer pregnant women in our community something more, that offers health care, that offer them baby food and diapers. And yes, as governor, I will offer every single mom in our state paid maternity leave."
  • "Every day, a woman gets pulled aside by a greedy boss or an abusive boyfriend and says, 'It's not a good time to be pregnant right now. Here's the card. They close at 8. you take care of it.' That is a lie. It is a slanderous affront to the women of our state. It is a heinous attack against the pre-born. As governor, I will protect the dignity of women and every pre-born life in Florida."

His plans if he's governor:

• Down payment assistance
  • "We're going to invest in our people. One of the first things that I'll do in my first year as governor is I'll work with the legislature to stand up a $385 million down payment assistance program called Rise and Shine. If you're doing everything right, you got a job, you're in a relationship, you're settled down, and you're not relying on the government as a form of welfare, there is a $10,000 check with your name on it to buy your first home, to start your family, to have kids, and to live out the full arc of the American dream right here in Florida."
• H-1B Reforms
  • "As governor, I will end the H-1B scam so you guys can get jobs."
• Direct line to government
  • I will launch a new agency titled the division of constituent services. You can call 24 hours a day and all of those operators will be right here from Florida in Florida. They will know the communities that you're in."
• Potholes
  • Said he would pay young men $75 to fill each pothole

And he's got some meme-ish quips, to get a sense of his humor:

• "As Jeb Bush would say, please clap."
• "Look, my mom is several shades darker than me and for that matter probably a couple shades darker than Barack Obama."
• "I got a lot of flack last time I was here and I said goyslop. The Times of Israel was very upset with me. A journalist from CNN wrote to me in an email and said, 'Sir, why did you call it goyslop?' And I said, 'Because it's funny. Get a life.' And he put it in the article."
• "And that means get ready for the opposition research to start in another gear. They're going to find some ex-girlfriend from seven years ago whovsaid that I sit to pee, which I do. I like to doom scroll."
• "H1-Byron", "APAC Shakur" to refer to his opponent Byron Donalds.

Slick Verbal phrases:

• "slanderous affront"
• "scandmic plandemic"

Misc Aggregated comparisons with old right and new left

(Notes) Differences with old right compared:

• Abortion: Need to increase health services and subsidize motherhood to prevent abortions due to economic reasons – not as much ideological/moral as material and pro-public-healthcare
• Anti-corporate: Anti datacenter, anti-Palantir.
• Anti-Israel: Explicit "Israel is committing genocide" and not wanting to fund them in any way.
• Done with culture war: "drag queens aren't the reason why you can't buy a home."

Differences with new left:

• Elimination of property taxes – new left, especially urban left, would want this as a lever and to be more pro-tenant
• Fully supports police, doesn't want "places you can't walk at night" – new left doesn't seem to want to touch this much
• America First Anti-Immigration materialism: Preferring explicitly that Floridians get jobs over H-1B or immigrants. The socialist wing of the new left has an internationalist "open borders" bent that doesn't work here as well, and the left in general is afraid of seeming racist against Indians.
• Focusing on healthier food in schools / MAHA: I just never see this messaging from the left...
• Not supporting vaccine mandates, "The COVID mRNA vaccine is poison"
• Anti labor union

Similarities to new left (compared to old right):

• Anti-israel
• Anti data center
• Anti-corporate
• Direct government access similar to Mamdani – He's saying he would pay young men $75 to fill each pothole, similar to Mamdani paying people for snow cleaning in NYC
• Anti-corporate- "Unlike Byron, I don't have 'shareholders.' I only work for you."