Predicting the 2025 Jersey City Mayoral Election

The Jersey City 2025 Mayoral election is coming up, so let's try to predict it.

Below is my analysis on the race. At the end, I'll go over my Kalshi positions, and predictions for how the race will go.

My goal for this article a way for me to think through this election, and after the fact understand what went right and wrong. I'm not afraid of being publicly wrong as long as we're learning something.

This is my first time trying to seriously predict election outcome for a race I have zero prior knowledge of, so please comment if you have thoughts.

Disclaimers

I have never been to Jersey City or (knowingly) met anyone from there. So most info comes from facebook groups, interviews, social media pages, polling, and even some drama on /r/jerseycity – nothing 'boots-on-the-ground' yet, and little understanding of the electorate.

This is a staggering lack of information! It's hard to infer wins from just polls and online comments. And I haven't done the kind of ward-level analysis of previous elections that might help me understand this better. This is a very "vibes-based" analysis.

And it's really hard for me to find time to thoroughly research this election. It takes a lot of time to look online and follow changes as they occur, and write about it here.

So take my opinions as they are, even just to understand your counterparty :)

The Race

Jersey City is a city with a population of about 292k. It's right across from Manhattan. There are direct connections by train between the two, and there are people who move to JC just to commute to NYC.

Jersey City's last mayoral race in 2021 had 42,373 votes, 170,090 registered voters, and their population in 2020 was 292,449, showing a turnout of about 15% of the population and 25% of registered voters.

To vote in this election, voters needs to be registered 21 days in advance, and there is no in-person registration.

Top topics mentioned by candidates are rent, cost of living, public safety, and corruption.

A key dynamic of this race is that if no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, there will be a runoff on December 2nd for the top two candidates by votes. So far, most people are predicting a runoff.

Mayoral candidates also form a slate of other candidates for city councilperson and council at-large positions. Mailers and ads will include these names. This is similar to the broader New Jersey political tradition of county line endorsements, where the party decides the placement of candidates on the ballots, giving favorable positions to their preferred candidates.

For this cycle, this will be the same ballot as the New Jersey governor election between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli, considered one of the closest governor races in 2025. Money and people power is being utilized on both sides to drive turnout, which will likely increase turnout in this election too.

Meet the Candidates

There are four major candidates, so let's go over each one. I'm ignoring Joyce Watterman and Christina Freeman since they are widely considered to have zero chance of winning.

Jim McGreevey

Jim McGreevey was governor of New Jersey in 2002 until 2004, until it was discovered he was having a gay affair with Golan Cipel, an Israeli national and the mayor's "homeland security advisor". McGreevey resigned in disgrace after Cipel threatened a sexual harassment lawsuit against him.

McGreevey is technically the first openly homosexual US governor since he came out of the closet on live TV just before announcing his resignation.

Since 2004, he became Catholic and has run some programs in JC for prisoners, and even made a documentary about his situation, Fall to Grace, produced by Nancy Pelosi's daughter. This would be his first public run for office since he resigned.

Jim McGreevy has the institutional endorsements, like current governor of New Jersey Paul Murphy, former mayors of Jersey City, mayors of other cities, and local labor unions. Some could consider these endorsements institutional and "old left," or endorsements from people that already hold high office, depending on the outlook.

But I don't think people particularly like him. He had a gay affair while married and resigned in disgrace. He didn't show up the last debate (and latest forum), and in the last one he was at the other candidates dumped on him for corruption and ties to developers.

That said – he has the most money, lots of billboards and mailers and online ads, experience in high office, high-profile endorsements, name-brand recognition, and people on the prediction markets think he has the best chance at winning.

He also is the most 'republican-coded' candidate, with him receiving donations from some Trump-aligned donors, and he isn't giving straight answers about this. And with Jersey City voting 17% republican in 2021 gubernatorial election, I think most of these voters would choose McGreevey.

These republican ties are of course a liability in a majority Democrat city, but could be a strong base. And this mid-atlantic "strong-man" all-american campaign imagery feels culturally east-coast and likely appeals to a lot of working class voters.

Mussab Ali

Ali is the youngest and most social-media-savvy of the candidates. He has cute videos, lots of followers/comments, and punchy editing.

Another tailwind is that he is Pakistani in Jersey City, of which maybe 10-20% of the population has "Indian ancestry." This doesn't necessarily translate into votes, but for one of the most diverse cities in America it matters.

This man is pretending to be Zohran Mamdani. Seriously. He has the "three-point-plan" which changes between videos, but always includes "Fast & Free Busses." If you watch some of their campaign tiktoks side by side, you'll see Ali doing the same "hands open moving outwards" hand movements.

This Zohran angle could be a good point for him. Ali's campaigning across the river from where Zohran will be winning the NY mayoral race. But it comes across as a little cringe, less polished, and he does not have the backing of the NYC-DSA like Zohran did.

In the NYC primary race, Zohran had an engaged political operation and oodles of canvassers at his back, but while Ali has daily canvassing events (idk how well attended these are), I don't think there is enough canvassing to beat out other candidates.

Ali leans towards the socialist end of progressive in a climate where the left moves farther left, and has some "fresh-left" endorsements like Ro Khanna, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tlaib. But without the actual political labor of an active political organization like the NYC-DSA, I don't think this translates to a win. Even though he does the "solidarity fist" gesture, he leans more "progressive" than "socialist" which has him competing with Solomon.

He also has an educated background, having been at Tsinghua and Harvard Law School, essentially the top schools of China and the US respectively.

In terms of his candor, he speaks a little too quickly and stilted. Not enough pauses, varied tempo, or change in vocal dynamic. He comes across as rehearsed and stilted in his speeches, and doesn't smile that much like Zohran does. This might not be a huge downside, but I find it really hard to consider him a top-two candidate for a mayoral race.

A fun aside – Ali has a brother that has been threatening people on social media for their comments about the candidate, forcing Ali to denounce this brother's behavior.

If the race was not so crowded, he had more institutional endorsements and links to city politics, and was more charismatic, he would have a better chance.

Polling usually has him around 4th-5th place, except for his own poll which put him at 2nd behind McGreevy. But this poll was conducted by Swayable, which is a company that is more focused on ad campaign analytics. Most of their case studies are things like "Boosting in-store sales with Thomas' English Muffins" – nothing about political polling.

James Solomon

James Solomon is currently the Councilman for Ward E, one of 6 wards in Jersey City. This is the most urban ward, containing city hall and the skyline across from Manhattan.

He has some slick videos, but not as zoomer-coded as Ali. He talks about his children and wife a lot, giving the sense that this is a mature, adult, family-friendly choice for office. For what it matters, he is also the tallest candidate.

Most important to me, he is in touch with other political organizations. Bernie's Our Revolution, the local UAW, and the Jersey Working Families Party endorsed him, making him the most "progressive" candidate, which feels like an effective position to be in for this race.

He's raising a lot of money, just not as much as McGreevey.

His campaign commissioned a poll by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a reputable polling agency, which has him in first ahead of McGreevy. I put more trust in this than Ali's Swayable poll, but it was commissioned by the Solomon campaign so take that as you will.

Something to note about PPP is that they were one of the few pollers to have Zohran at a win for the NYC primary. Their reason for this is that they were "polling the expanded electorate", so that feels to me that if James Solomon is successfully expanding the electorate through outreach, he will certainly be in the runoff.

Other candidates are starting to attack him more and more for some corruption allegations, but I don't see much weight behind these arguments, and Solomon is pushing back.

Overall, I think he has a good balance of 'family-friendly', progressive endorsements, slick social media, and donor money.

Bill O'Dea

When Bill O'dea talks at debates, he clearly has the most in-depth understanding of local politics. In 1985, when he was 26, O’Dea was elected to the Jersey City Council. He's been doing work for decades and has been doing work in the community for 40+ years.

He proposes solutions by talking about the parties that are involved, their budgets, credits, and talks realistically. He is deeply in touch with local issues.

The /r/jerseycity reddit contingent seems to like him a lot for similar reasons. He is intelligent and has a relatively progressive housing policy that some say makes more sense than Solomon.

For the bad – First and frankly, he is old and aged. His style is outdated – look at that mustard tie on grey suit! He cleans up in his professional photos, but looks older in person.

This sounds catty, and isn't a dig on him personally, but when voters evaluate candidates based on faces on mailers or videos, appearance is a factor. Having jowls and the least facial symmetry in a race of crowded candidates is meaningful.

He could lean "Bernie," and has some union endorsements, but I don't think his campaign is that savvy. But of all the candidates he seems most in touch with local workers.

And it doesn't help that he has some corruption allegations – a mailer recently went out from the Solomon campaign "linking Bill O’Dea to former School Board President Sudan Thomas and U.S. Senator Bob Menendez Sr and close allies of O’Dea." Some might see his time in politics as valuable experience, but it could play against an anti-corruption message.

A October 16th poll by his campaign has him tied with Solomon behind McGreevy, and he has been about 2nd or 3rd place depending on the poll.

Predictions and Positions

I'll explain the most likely outcomes, and what positions my money is on.

General Strategy

Based on polling and the amount of people in the race, this will most certainly go to a runoff with McGreevy as one of the candidates.

Everybody but McGreevy is below 12c Yes on Kalshi right now, and and whoever makes it to the runoff will presumably get a higher price (if the vote is close enough), there is value to be had in figuring out who will be in the runoff with McGreevy since we can sell their position later or ride them to December.

Jim McGreevy and James Solomon in runoff

This is what I'm betting on. I think that Jim McGreevy will get the most votes but not a majority, and James Solomon will be second, bringing them to a runoff.

The opposite could happen too, with Solomon getting most votes and McGreevy in second, and that would reinforce the case for Solomon.

McGreevy has enough money that can translate into votes, but I'm finding few people online who really like him who doesn't have a conservative-coded profile. This might reflect the more digital-first voters for other candidates, and I really don't understand the JC electorate, but it's hard to imagine McGreevy being popular enough to get more than 50% of the vote..

I think there is room in the future of the democratic party for forgiveness to people in situations like McGreevy's, but a 2025 Jersey City mayoral election is probably not the place for that, especially given that he is the "farthest right" of the candidates. Catholics could boost him since they are the religious majority in Jersey City.

For local political expertise, Jim McGreevy to my understanding has not been participating meaningfully in local politics, and James Solomon has enough political experience for voters and has campaigned recently for ward E councilperson.

In the runoff, I think James Solomon wins. There are more groups to coalesce around Solomon and do canvassing/GOTV. All other candidates are more anti-McGreevy than anti-Solomon. And I have a hard time believing that McGreevy will be able to match this. Who would want to go door-to-door asking their neighbors to vote for a disgraced governor who resigned in 2004 after a secret gay affair?

It's easy to communicate to voters that McGreevy is taking donations from Trump affiliates and has a history of corruption. I don't think there is as much of an anti-Solomon case.

Jim McGreevy Gets Majority

I think this is unlikely. With such a crowded race and him not being very likable, I can't imagine him getting more than 50% of the votes. No polls are indicating this is a possibility (all have him less than 30%, but the polls include undecideds around 25%)

Presumably the kinds of people not covered in existing polling are the young professional types moving to be in proximity to NYC, who all other candidates would appeal to. And in my intuition, this demographic is more likely to vote, especially given the NJ gov race, and more likely to vote anyone but Greevey.

Bill O'Dea and James Solomon in runoff

This feels increasingly likely. The two are beginning to run counter-mailers and attack ads. There is also the "left wave" possibility where people really come out for the Democratic NJ governor nominee and this moves this race farther left in general, which could mean the more conservative-ish-aligned McGreevy gets less votes than polls are saying.

O'Dea is pragmatic and talks very intelligently about concrete problems and their concrete solutions, drawing on his deep local experience, while Solomon talks at a higher and more abstract level.

But I think voters will be looking for younger, more progressive leaders that are "left" or "progressive" coded.

A O'Dea/Solomon runoff could split the votes in unpredictable ways, and could get a lot more local mobilization for O'Dea, and I don't know where to start yet in evaluating who would win in this scenario.

Jim McGreevy and O'Dea in runoff

This happens only if O'Dea is truly loved by JC voters and is running a better canvassing operation than Solomon. I don't think that's the case.

This is the scenario I am most "worried" about since I don't have boots-on-the-ground in JC and don't understand the electorate. O'Dea could really be doing great, and it's just not legible to someone not there and someone not doing as in-depth of research.

Jim McGreevy and Ali in runoff

This only happens Ali hugely outpreforms, Ali's campaign manages massive and surprising voter turnout, and O'Dea/Solomon split their base.

Based on Ali's lack of experience, his bad polling, and the strength of the other candidates, I don't see this happening. Ali comes across as too immature and inexperienced without a visionary message or enough charisma to make up for this.

He's trying so hard to be the Zohran to McGreevy's Cuomo, but he doesn't have the same kind of political labor and infrastructure that the NYC-DSA provided to Zohran's campaign. And Zohran has a more positive personality and better speaking style.

It's a possibility, but Ali's campaign would need to be solid and the social media campaign would need to be expanding the electorate and drawing out enough new voters.

My Positions

Here's my positions on Kalshi as of 10/27, not counting current limit orders.

These are relatively small positions, and I am building them slowly up to the election. This is the first campaign I am really taking seriously, so if this one goes well I'll have some larger positions in the future.

• McGreevy: 516 Yes at 57.3c
  • McGreevy has a the best chance at getting to the runoffs. He's first in most polls, has major endorsements, so 57c feels like a good price. If it is a McGreevy - Solomon runoff, I may try to sell off this position.
• Solomon: 3690 Yes at 19.1c
  • I think he is going to be in the runoff. In a runoff I would likely hold, maybe increase the position. The market has been pricing him lower than 25% all of October, and I think this is underpriced given his canvassing, endorsements, political position, and progressive ideology.
• O'Dea: 78 Yes at 9c
  • This is not a major position, I just think it is good value at 9c. I think he's genuinely a good candidate, but not likely to win, but since I don't understand enough about the electorate there is a good chance I'm wrong.
• Ali: No Position
  • There is very little liquidity for No. I could buy asks from 95c to 97c No for ~$664 and make about twenty bucks – not enough value.

Last Thoughts

It has been really good for my thinking to write this article, and I've learned a lot doing it.

I hope that this goes well, so I am motivated to continue writing. But losing a lot of money on this would make for a fun follow-up article.

In future posts, I hope to spend more time researching and going more in-depth.

Acknowledgments

Special thanks to Sharpie, Haley, and Famouspet for their feedback.